Re: Insoluble marbles-in-urn problem?

*To*: mathgroup at smc.vnet.net*Subject*: [mg120065] Re: Insoluble marbles-in-urn problem?*From*: Dana DeLouis <dana.del at gmail.com>*Date*: Thu, 7 Jul 2011 07:32:22 -0400 (EDT)

...I don't believe the hypergeometric distribution is any help at all... Hi. Just a silly side note. I mentioned 1 - PDF(...) I thought we could get rid of the 1-(xxx) by using CDF only. However, I don't believe this is the case. The smaller population is question is 1/10th the total size. If we reverse this logic, and think of the remaining larger population (ie 9/10th of the size) If we pick 0,1,2,...8 from the Larger population that does not match the specific number, then this results in 2 or more remaining that do match the number. Hense, the use CDF. I don/t see why, but it appears we have to add in probability of having the specific (PDF) of NONE or 0. Limit[ = CDF[HypergeometricDistribution[10,(9m)/10,m],8]+PDF[HypergeometricDistribution[10,(9m)/10,m],10] ,m->\[Infinity]] 612579511 / 1000000000 Using this logic, we can also add all the changes of picking 0-10 from the larger array (CDF), and subtracting the chance of having only 1. Limit[ = CDF[HypergeometricDistribution[10,(9m)/10,m],10]-PDF[HypergeometricDistribution[10,(9m)/10,m],9] ,m->\[Infinity]] 612579511 / 1000000000 = = = = = = = = = = HTH : >) Dana DeLouis $Version 8.0 for Mac OS X x86 (64-bit) (November 6, 2010) On Jul 3, 4:14 am, John Feth <johnf... at gmail.com> wrote: > There is a huge urn full of marbles, each marked with a single digit: > 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. The marked marble quantities are > uniformly distributed between all of the digits and the marbles are > thoroughly mixed. You look away, choose 10 marbles, and put them in a > black velvet bag. > > When you have some time, you look away, open the bag, and remove one > marble. You close the bag, look at the digit on the marble, open a > beer perhaps, and calculate the probability that there is at least one > more marble in the bag with the same digit. > > The answer is brute forced below is there a formal way to obtain the > answer? I don't believe the marbles-in-urn standby, the > hypergeometric distribution, is any help at all. > > Copy and paste the algorithm below into Mathematica (V6 or newer) to > find the surprising answer, estimated from a million tests in about 16 > seconds. > > Timing[rag=Table[x,{x,1,1000000}];For[i=1,i<Length[rag]+1,i+ > +,rag[[i]]=Table[RandomInteger[{0,9}],{n,1,10}]];bug=Table[x,{x, > 1,Length[rag]}];For[i=1,i<Length[rag]+1,i+ > = +,bug[[i]]=RandomInteger[{1,10}]];selection=Table[rag[[i,bug[[i]]]],{i, > 1,Length[rag]}];freq:=Table[Count[rag[[i]],selection[[i]]],{i, > = 1,Length[rag]}];bull=Tally[Characters[freq]];bullsort=Sort[bull];N[(Length[ rag]- > bullsort[[1,2]])/Length[rag],10]] > > Below are some definitions that might make the algorithm above a > little less opaque. > > rag is a table of 10 digit random strings below > > (*rag=Table[x,{x,1,3}];For[i=1,i<Length[rag]+1,i+ > +,rag[[i]]=Table[RandomInteger[{0,9}],{n,1,10}]];rag > {{9,6,5,3,4,9,1,7,4,3},{8,5,7,7,0,0,5,6,3,5},{1,1,8,0,9,0,4,3,4,3}}*) > > bug is a table of which digit to pick from each rag[ [ ] ] above, i.e. > the 4th from the left in rag[[1]], the 2nd from the left in rag[[2]], > etc. > > (*bug=Table[x,{x,1,Length[rag]}];For[i=1,i<Length[rag]+1,i+ > +,bug[[i]]=RandomInteger[{1,10}]];bug > {4,2,5}*) > > selection is a table of the values of the digit picked above, i.e., > the 4th digit in rag[[1]] is a 3, the 2nd digit in rag[[2]] is a 5, > etc. > > (*selection=Table[rag[[i,bug[[i]]]],{i,1,Length[rag]}] > {3,5,9}*) > > freq is a table of the number selected digits in rag[[n]], i.e., there > are two 3s in rag[[1]], three 5s in rag[[2]], one 9 in rag[[3]], etc. > > (*freq=Table[Count[rag[[i]],selection[[i]]],{i,1,Length[rag]}] > {2,3,1}*) > > bull tallies how many times the chosen digit occurs > > (*bull=Tally[Characters[freq]] > {{Characters[2],1},{Characters[3],1},{Characters[1],1}}*) > > bullsort tallies the number of times the chosen digit occurs; the > chosen digit occurred once one time (9's above), twice one time (4's > above), and once three times (5's above) > > (*bullsort=Sort[bull] > {{Characters[1],1},{Characters[2],1},{Characters[3],1}}*)